Pakistan - BureaucratONE

India-Pakistan

Border disputes
- Indian independence act
  - Under the act, two boundary commissions were setup to demarcate the boundary of Punjab and Bengal region
  - Two areas were left out: J&K and Sir Creek
  - Total Border length: 3323 Kms
    - International border: 2260 Kms
    - LOC: 814 Kms (disputed)
      - NJ9842
      - No demarcation after this: Siachen and Trans-Karakoram range

India has half of J&K, Siachen and Ladakh
Pak has Gilgit and Baltistan
China has AKSAI chin

Kashmir
- History
  - Kashmir didn't join either side
  - Attack by Pak in 1948 -> Maharaja comes to India for help -> Mountbatten to Maharaja: Sign the instrument of accession -> matter goes to UNSC -> UNSC Resolution 47 -> Mandates the formation of UN commission on India and Pak -> Demands withdrawal of armies for plebiscite
  - India's stand
    - Kashmir is integral part of
    - Plebiscite only after removal of army by Pakistan
    - Constituent assembly of Kashmir ratified instrument of accession
    - India values Secularism

Wars until surgical strike
- 1965 war:
  - India's defeat in 1962 Indo-Sino war -> Pak undermines India's military position
  - Domestic discontent in Kashmir
  - Phase 1: Pakistan Attacks in Rann of Kutch area
  - Phase 2: Pak attacks in Kashmir area
  - USA and UK criticizes both countries and stops food supplies
  - China calls India as aggressive and supports Pakistan
  - USSR discourages China and tries mediating and this led to Tashkent agreement (singed between Ayyub Khan and Shastri)
  - Provision of Tashkent treaty
    - Withdrawal of troops by both the countries
    - India was asked to return the occupied territories (Haji Pir pass was occupied by India)
  - Criticism of treaty
    - India failed to resolve Kashmir issue
    - UN charter provides for using force for self-defense which is often misused by Pakistan
  - Why did shastri sing the treaty?
    - Pressure from USSR to stop defense equipment
    - Assurances of good behavior by Pak
    - Neighbor relations as per UN charter

1971 war
- Secularism, political-nation
- Military power
- India's role as a regional leader
- Support of USSR
- Shimla agreement, 1972
  - Signed between Indira Gandhi and Ali Bhutto
  - Withdrawal of troops
  - Return of prisoners of wars
  - Following UN charter for maintaining international peace and security
  - Principles of Panchsheel and NAM to be followed
  - Dispute between India and Pak will be solved bilaterally or by any other mean to which both have to agree.
  - It provided for cooperation in many areas

Criticism

Economic and commercial cooperation Communication and transportation Technology and cultural links

Institutional arrangement to provide for more meetings

Boundary was not demarcated
Kashmir issue was not solved
Starting of proxy wars

Post 1971
- Issue of Proxy war and nuclear development
1990
- Geo-economics
- Principles of functionalism
- Gujaral doctrine, 
1998 Nuclear test
- Bus diplomacy 
1999, Kargil war
- 2001, Agra summit
  - Two-day historic summit to resolve long standing issues between India and Pakistan
- 2004, Islamabad summit
  - 6+2 composite dialogue mechanism (CDM)
  - 6 area of cooperation
  ◊ Sir creek issue ◊ Siachen glacier ◊ Tulbul Navigation project ◊ Terrorism and drug trafficking ◊ Economic and commercial links ◊ Cultural diplomacy
  - Areas left out
  ◊ Kashmir and nuclear issue 
26/11 attack, collapse of CDM 
2016, Uri Attack
Surgical strike
- It's a precision strike with minimum collateral damage
- It is part of India's 'Cold start doctrine'
  - Limited warfare doctrine
  - It requires multiple levels of coordination with intelligence wing 
Soft border concept by M Singh
- Regulated security environment with provision for trade

Sir Creek issue
- Q/ Geographical importance of Sir creek?
- Tidal estuary on the border
- Marshy area
- Demarcated by Sir creek in 1914 between Sindh and Kutch -> Green line
- Part of Composite dialogue mechanism

India's position
- India doesn't accept the green line
- Follows Thalweg principle under UNCLOS (territories should be demarcated mid-way [red line])
Importance of area
- Strategic
- Economic (rich in oil and gas)
Why should it be solved?
- Humanitarian basis (fishermen community is affected because of conflict)
- Economic resources are left unexploited
- Infiltration needs to be checked

Siachen glacier

Located beyond NJ9841
Flows in the valley formed by Saltoro bridge in west and Karakoram range in east
Highest battle ground in the world
Strategic but too expensive to maintain army
Issuance of Visa by Pak to Chinese expedition in 1984
1984, Operation Meghdoot by India to capture Siachen Glacier
Part of CDM
Recommendation/solution: Convert into 'mountain of peace' for joint scientific exploration and expedition

Water dispute
- Indus water treaty
  - Ad-hoc arrangement were made
  - World Bank mediated in 1951 and treaty was signed in 1969

Provisions
- Western rivers Indus, Chenab and Jhelum (ICJ) given to Pak
- Eastern rivers Sutlej, Beas, Ravi to India
- Mandatory sharing of hydrological data
- India can initiate projects related to irrigation and power on the western rivers but if Pak objects, it has to solve disputes either bilaterally or mediation or arbitration
- Establishment of permanent Indus commission (PIC)
- Obligatory meeting of the members of PIC at least once in a year
- World Bank, when gives grants and loans with respect to implementation of projects, the responsibility of making the treaty as success, lies with India

Pakistan's obstructionist attitude and recent conflicts
- Tulbul Navigation project
  - On Jhelum
  - When opposed by Pak, India disbanded the project in 1985
- Kishan Ganga dam
  - On Jhelum
  - Affects the Neelam Dam of Pak
- Pakal dul project

India's stand after Uri Attack
- There will be no revision to Indus water treaty
- Maximum utilization of western rivers
- 20% of water to be reserved for J&K farmers
- No meetings of PIC
- Restarting Tulbul Navigation project
- Completion of these project

Implications/ consequences
- Upper riparian should be responsible power
- China may do the same action to India
- Will increase tension between both countries
- Water conflicts may have implication on other areas of cooperation
- Pak govt may utilize it as a platform to fuel anti-India feeling
- India's big brotherly image
- Disrespect for international treaty

Solutions
- There is a need to have state of art of technology like satellite based telemetry system to assists water levels
- There should be an independent Indus water commission consisting of neutral experts from countries outside south Asia
- Replenishment and environmental assessment
  - India and Pak should undertake joint water shed management
  - Environment impact assessment under an international institution
  - Preservation of glaciers specifically Siachen to be converted into mountain of peace.

Ethnic conflicts

Ethnics in Baluchistan
Geographically isolated
Discrimination -> II class treatment to Baluch citizens and their less political representation
No economic development
Opportunities are taken up by Punjabis
Unified Baluchistan army, 1960
People's party in 1970: Responsible for building Baluch nationalism
Pak stands:
- Suppression of Baluch people
- Encouraged migration of Afghan Pashtuns to change the demography of Baluchistan
India is accused of interreference in Baluch province

Issue of CPEC

3000 Kms connectivity between Kashgar to Gwadar port
Passes through POK
Road + rail + pipelines + optics fibers
$ 46B
Overall 3 corridors
- western
- Central
- Eastern
China's interest
- Direct access to Indian ocean
- Shortest route and economic benefits
- Gateway to china for central and west Asia
- It is conduit to Africa where China is actively involved and will facilitate easy movement of Chinese workers
- Development of Xinjian province and curtailing ethnic conflict
Pak interest
- Economic development
- Huge Power deficit in Pak will be filled by CPEC
- Gwadar upgradation project will have Gwadar airport linking with interiors of Pak and facilitating its development
India's concern
- Sovereignty issue
- China's presence
- Infiltration
If India Joins?
- Indian can facilitate development of region
- Monitor the presence of China and external non-state actor□
Issues
- Problem of ethnic conflict
- Extremism / terrorism
- Debt trap